Waters, Vol. 1, Issue 1, Sep  2018, Pages 16-29; DOI: 10.31058/j.water.2018.11002 10.31058/j.water.2018.11002

Impacts of Climate Change on the Water Resources of Guder Catchment, Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia

Waters, Vol. 1, Issue 1, Sep  2018, Pages 16-29.

DOI: 10.31058/j.water.2018.11002

Fikru Fentaw 1* , Bahiru Mekuria 2 , Abebe Arega 3

1 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Kombolcha institute of Technology (Kiot), Wollo University, Kombolcha, Ethiopia

2 School of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Adama Science and Technology University, Adama, Ethiopia

3 Department Civil Engineering, institute of Technology, Hawasa University, Hawasa, Ethiopia

Received: 30 November 2017; Accepted: 15 January 2018; Published: 29 January 2018

Full-Text HTML | Download PDF | Views 634 | Download 380

Abstract

This study uses Climate Model outputs of HadCM3A2a and HadCM3B2a SRES climate scenarios and downscale the predictors into finer scale resolution using Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) to simulate and project the climate at local scale in order to investigate the hydrological impact of possible future climate change in Guder catchment, Upper Blue Nile Basin (Ethiopia). The results, obtained from this climate model, were compared to the observational datasets for precipitation and temperature for the period 1990-2008. To estimate the level of impact of climate change, climate change scenarios of precipitation and temperature were divided into time windows of 30 years each from 2011 to 2100.The downscaled A2a and B2a emission scenarios result indicates a significant increasing trend in mean temperature and precipitation in all future time periods in the study catchment. We applied the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to investigate the response of the water resources of the Guder River catchment to the scenarios of projected climate change. The model output shows that there may be an annual and seasonal increase in inflow volume for both A2a and B2a emission scenarios in three benchmark periods in the future. Potential evapotranspiration in the catchment will also increase up to 25%. Generally, results presented in this study can provide valuable insight to decision makers on the degree of vulnerability of Guder river catchment to climate change, which is important to design appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Keywords

Guder Catchment, Water Resources, SWAT Model, Climate Change, SDSM, SRES

Copyright

© 2017 by the authors. Licensee International Technology and Science Press Limited. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

References

[1] IPCC, Climate Change 2007. Synthesis Report; Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007.
[2] Tarekegn, D.; A. Tadege. Assessing the impact of climate change on the water resources of the Lake Tana sub‐basin using the WATBAL model, Discuss. Pap. 30, Cent. for Environ. Econ. and Policy in Afr., Univ. of Pretoria, Pretoria, 2006.
[3] Zeray, L. Calibration and Validation of SWAT Hydrologic Model for Meki Watershed, Ethiopia, Conference of International Agricultural Research for Development, University of Kassel Wizenhausen and University of G¨ottingen, October 2007.
[4] Kim, U.; Kaluarachchi, J.J. Climate change impacts on water resources in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia1. Wiley Online Library, 2009.
[5] Gebre, S.L.; Ludwig, F. Hydrological Response to Climate Change of the Upper Blue Nile River Basin: Based on IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Journal of Climatology & Weather Forecasting, 2015.
[6] Endalkachew A.; Asfaw K. Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the Water Resources of Megech River Catchment, Abbay Basin, Ethiopia. Open Journal of Modern Hydrology, 2017, 7, 141-152.
[7] Conway, D. from headwater tributaries to international river: Observing and adapting to Climate variability and change in the Nile basin. Global Environmental Change, 2005, 15, 99-114.
[8] Melesse, A.M.; A.G. Loukas; G. Senay; M. Yitayew. Climate change, land‐cover dynamics and ecohydrology of the Nile River Basin, Hydrol. Processes, 2009, 23, 3651-3652.
[9] Mengistu D.; Sorteberg A. Sensitivity of SWAT simulated streamflow to climatic changes within the Eastern Nile River basin, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 2012, 16, 391-407.
[10] Enyew, B.D.; H.A.J. Van Lanen; A.F. Van Loon. Assessment of the impact of climate change on hydrological drought in Lake Tana catchment, Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia. J. Geol. Geophys. 2014, 3, DOI: 10.4172/2329-6755.1000174.
[11] Nigatu, Z.M.; T. Rientjes; A.T. Haile. Hydrological impact assessment of climate change on Lake Tana’s water balance, Ethiopia. Am. J. Clim. Change. 2016, 5, 27-37, DOI: 10.4236/ajcc.2016.51005
[12] Setegn, S.G.; D. Rayner; A.M. Melesse; B. Dargahi; R. Srinivasan. Impact of climate change on the hydro climatology of Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia. Water Resour. Res. 2011, 47, W04511, DOI: 10.1029/2010WR009248
[13] Dile, Y.T.; Berndtsson, R.; Setegn, S.G. Hydrological Response to Climate Change for Gilgel Abay River, in the Lake Tana Basin-Upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia. PloS one, 2013, 8(10), e79296.
[14] Tung, C.P.; T.M. Liu; S.W. Chen; K.Y. Ke; M.H. Li. Carrying capacity and sustainability appraisals on regional water supply systems under climate change. Br. J. Environ. Clim. Change. 2014, 4, 27-44, DOI: 10.9734/BJECC/2014/8572.
[15] Hailu S. Ayele; Ming-Hsu Li; Ching-Pin Tung; Tzu-Ming Liu. Assessing Climate Change Impact on Gilgel Abbay and Gumara Watershed Hydrology, the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia, Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci. 2016, 27(6), 1005-1018, DOI: 10.3319/TAO.2016.07.30.01
[16] Beyene, T.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Kabat, P. Hydrological Impact of Climate Change on the Nile River Basin: Implication of the 2007 IPCC Scenarios. Climate Change, 2010, 100, 433-461, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9693-0.
[17] Taye, M.T.; Ntegeka, V.; Ogiramoi, N.P.; Willems, P. Assessment of climate change impact on hydrological extremes in two source regions of the Nile River Basin, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 2011, 15, 209-222.
[18] Ayele, H.S.; M.H. Li; C.P. Tung; T.M. Liu. Assessing climate change impact on Gilgel Abbay and Gumara watershed hydrology, the upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia. Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci. 2016, 27, 1005-1018, DOI: 10.3319/TAO.2016.07.30.01.
[19] FAO: Soils of EAST Africa, SEA, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, ACD-Rom Data, Rome, 1995.
[20] Hansen, M.; Defries, R.; Townshend, J.R.G.; Sohlberg, R. UMD Global Land Cover Classification, Specify 1 Degree, 8 Kilometres, or 1 Kilometre (1.0), Department of Geography, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland. 1998, 1981-1994.
[21] Nicks, A.D. Stochastic generation of the occurrence, pattern, and location of maximum amount of daily rainfall, in: Proceedings Symposium on Statistical Hydrology, United States Department of Agriculture, Misc. 1974, Publication No. 1275, Tucson.
[22] Yimer, G.; Jonoski, A.; Van Griensven, A. Hydrological response of a catchment to climate change in the upper Beles river basin, upper blue Nile, Ethiopia. Nile Basin Water Engineering Scientific Magazine, 2009, 2, 49-59.
[23] Hassan, Z.; Shamsudin, S.; Harun, S. Application of SDSM and LARS-WG for simulating and downscaling of rainfall and temperature. Theoretical and applied climatology, 2014, 5 116(1-2), 243-257.
[24] Wilby, R.L.; Dawson, C.W.; Barrow, E.M. SDSM—a decision support tool for the assessment of regional climate change impacts. Environmental Modelling & Software, 2002, 17(2), 145-157.
[25] Wilby R.L.; Daw son C.W. Using SDSM version 4.1 and SDSM 4.2; a decision support tool for the assessment of regional climate change impacts. User Manual. Leics, LE11 3TU, UK, 2007.
[26] Neitsch, S.L.; Amold, J.G.; Kiniry, J.R.; Srinivasan, R.; Williams, J.R. Soil andWa-ter Assessment Tool SWAT Theory, Version 2000, Temple, Tx.USDA Agricultural Research Service and Texas A&M Blackland Research Center, 2005.
[27] Van Griensven, A.; Ndomba, P.; Yalew, S.; Kilonzo, F. Critical review of SWAT applications in the upper Nile basin countries. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2012, 16, 3371-3381.
[28] Dessie, M.; Verhoest, N.E.C.; Admasu, T.; Pauwels, V.R.N.; Poesen, J.; Adgo, E.; Deckers, J.; Nyssen, J. Effects of the floodplain on river discharge into Lake Tana (Ethiopia). J. Hydrol. 2014, 519, 699-710.
[29] Addis H.K.; Strohmeier S.; Ziadat F.; Melaku N.D.; Klik A. Modeling streamflow and sediment using SWAT in the Ethiopian Highlands. Int J Agric & Biol Eng. 2016, 9(5), 51-66, DOI: 10.3965/j.ijabe.20160905.2483.
[30] Schuol, J.; Abbaspour, K.C.; Yang, H.; Srinivasan, R. Modelling blue and green water availability in Africa. Water Resour. Res. 2008, 44, 1-18.
[31] Gassman, P.W.; Reyes, M.R.; Green, C.H.; Arnold, J.G. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool: historical development, applications, and future research directions, Trans. ASABE, 2007, 50, 1211-1250.
[32] USDA-SCS: Hydrology, in: National Engineering Hand Book Sect. 4, Washington, DC, USDA-SCS, 1972.
[33] Green W.H.; Ampt G.A. Studies on soil physics, 1. The flow of air and water through soils. J Agric Sci. 1911, 4, 11-24.
[34] Abbaspour, K.C.; J. Yang; I. Maximov; R. Siber; K. Bogner; J. Mieleitner; J. Zobrist; R. Srinivasan. Modelling hydrology and water quality in the pre‐alpine/alpine Thur watershed using SWAT. J. Hydrol. 2007, 333, 413-430. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.09.014.
[35] Nash, J.E.; Sutcliffe, J.V. River flow forecasting through conceptual models – Part I: a discussion of principles. J. Hydrol. 1970, 10, 282-290.

Related Articles