Education Journal, Vol. 1, Issue 2, Jun  2018, Pages 75-85; DOI: 10.31058/j.edu.2018.12006 10.31058/j.edu.2018.12006

Predictive Impact of Educational Expenditure and Unemployment rate on Economic Growth in Nigeria

Education Journal, Vol. 1, Issue 2, Jun  2018, Pages 75-85.

DOI: 10.31058/j.edu.2018.12006

Samson Agboola 1* , Inusa Musa 2 , Zubairu Ibrahim 1

1 Directorate of Postgraduate Diploma in Education, Federal College of Education, Zaria, Kaduna State, Nigeria

2 Department of Geography, Federal College of Education, Zaria, Kaduna State, Nigeria

Received: 7 July 2018; Accepted: 15 August 2018; Published: 18 September 2018

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Abstract

This paper examines the impact of Educational Expenditure and Unemployment rate on Economic Growth in Nigeria using a yearly data from 1970 to 2017 from the website of CBN and NBS. From the empirical results, it shows that the distributions of the dataset are positively skewness to the right and the distribution of the variables is exhibit high kurtosis which evidence of leptokurtic. The Jarque-Bera statistic shows very high values with it probability values indicating that the distribution on Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Educational Expenditure (EE) and Unemployment Rate (UR) are not normally distribution. Test for stationarity shows that EE and UR were stationary at first difference while GDP was stationary at second difference. An Autoregressive model was employed to predict the pattern of GDP, EE and UR for the next ten (10) years. Model specification was obtained and from the result of the AC and PAC statistic an AR model was selected and also include the difference in the data set for each data set at first for Educational expenditure and Unemployment rate while second order for GDP, that is, ARIMA(1,1,0) model for EE and UR and ARIMA(1,2,0) model for GDP. From the forecasting model, the results of the forecasting values for Educational Expenditure, Unemployment rate and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from the period of 2018 to 2030 were obtained from individual estimate of the ARIMA models which shows a random walk for some period before reaching a steady state.

Keywords

Predictive Impact, Education Expenditure, Unemployment, Economic Growth and Development

Copyright

© 2017 by the authors. Licensee International Technology and Science Press Limited. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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